By Emmy Powell
Communications Specialist

Farmers in Texas and the U.S. are expected to plant fewer cotton acres this year.

According to the National Cotton Council of America’s (NCC) 43rd Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, Texas farmers plan to plant nearly 5.3 million acres of upland cotton, which is down 5.1% from last year.

U.S. cotton farmers intend to plant 9.8 million cotton acres this spring, down 3.7% from 2023.

“Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size,” Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC vice president of Economics and Policy Analysis, said.

Of the intended U.S. cotton acreage, extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 202,000 acres represent a 37.7% increase. Texas growers expect to plant 35,000 acres of ELS cotton, 22.0% more than last year.

Upland cotton acres in the U.S. are expected to account for 9.6 million acres, down 4.3% from last year.

The decrease in cotton acres in the Southwest, including Texas, is due to an expected increase in corn, soybean and peanut acres.

Uncertainty remains around the current economy for many, including cotton farmers. And the slow economic growth isn’t helping the cotton market.

“For many months now, the demand for cotton has appeared weak, as measured by buyer inquiries and export sales. This has happened along with, or perhaps because of, lingering fears about slow economic growth,” Dr. John Robinson, AgriLife Extension cotton economist, said.

The general outlook on the economy, Robinson said, is likely to limit the cotton market.

There are many factors that will contribute to the market this season. However, Robinson said there are bullish possibilities for the year.

“Combined with short cotton supplies in the U.S., eventual cuts in interest rates, and assumed economic growth, this scenario paints a picture of surging demand to make up the gap,” Robinson said. “There are lots of ifs to play out under this bullish scenario, but if they did, it would show upward spikes in weekly export sales, as well as strength in ICE cotton futures.”

NCC expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather. Farmers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their 2024 acreage decisions.

“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. As compared to average futures prices during the first quarter of 2023, all commodity prices were lower during the survey period, but cotton had the smallest decline,” Campiche said. “As a result, the price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans were higher than in 2023. Based on historical price relationships, this would generally suggest an increase in cotton acreage. However, the 2024 crop year could go against that relationship due to high production costs relative to current prices.”