By Jennifer Whitlock
Field Editor
U.S. sorghum appears set to bring in the most valuable sorghum crop in history this fall if predictions from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report hold true.
USDA expects the 2021 U.S. sorghum crop to yield about 427 million bushels.
While that is not a large crop by historic standards, the total value of the crop would be the largest ever if the projected price of $6.10 per bushel comes to fruition, according to National Sorghum Producers
Demand, inflation and smaller crops in other parts of the world all contribute to the situation, National Sorghum Producer Executive Vice President John Duff said.
Tightening supplies in global corn and soybean balances have led to an increase in those commodity prices, as well as for sorghum. Duff noted soybean prices are at a high not seen since 2012, when a vast majority of the U.S. was gripped by drought.
Demand is strong right now, with Duff calling China’s grain purchases “nothing short of spectacular.”
“With the double whammy of demand that occurred when China substituted pigs wiped out by African swine fever with chickens, replaced the pigs and kept feeding the chickens, that country’s grain needs have been insatiable,” he wrote in a recent Southwest Farm Press commentary. “In addition, with millions still emerging from lockdown across the globe, there’s a lot of pent-up demand, the effects of which we’ve only just begun to feel.”
The last time sorghum brought this much of a premium over corn, Duff said corn acres jumped and demand diminished. That drastically reduced sorghum prices and contracted the market.
But this time, the U.S. seems to just be reaching the level of production needed to achieve sustainable growth. Dunn cautioned his prediction may not hold up in the long run, but he remains optimistic on sorghum’s outlook.
“Demand is real, and the growth there isn’t going away. And supplies are tight for the time being,” he said. “As long as farmers keep the fragility in mind and sell when they can lock in a profit, they’ll find ways to meet the needs of the world regardless of where the market goes.”
For more sorghum market news, visit National Sorghum Producers.