By Jessica Domel
Multimedia Reporter
An increase in commercial beef and broiler production over the last month has prompted the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise the forecast for 2017 meat production.
According to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the increases in beef and broiler production more than offset declines in both the pork and turkey industries.
Beef
Cattlemen across the globe placed more cattle in the second quarter, according to the report, which has led to the forecast increase in beef production as it will likely impact fourth quarter cattle slaughter.
This year, beef imports are raised due to higher than expected shipments of lean processing beef from Australia and its neighboring islands, referred to as Oceania in the report, in June. That’s expected to carry into the third quarter.
The beef export forecast is down, however, over last month due to recent trade data and an anticipated slowdown in global demand for the rest of the year.
Increased Japanese tariffs on imports of frozen beef from the U.S. may also weigh on the situation.
Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2017 and 2018, according to USDA, as current prices have weakened. Larger than expected supplies of fed cattle are expected to further weigh on prices.
Looking to 2018, USDA predicts beef production will continue to rise due to expected higher placements in late 2017 and early 2018. That will likely result in increased steer and heifer replacement, according to USDA.
Poultry
Second quarter broiler production is increased slightly in this month’s report due to June production data.
The broiler export forecast is down this month on weaker foreign demand.
The annual broiler price forecast for 2017 is raised, but the price forecast for 2018 remains unchanged this month.
Turkey production is also forecast down this month due to slower than expected recovery in demand. Relatively poor returns to farmers also weigh on the market.
The turkey price forecast for 2017 and 2018 were lowered in this month’s report due to the slower recovery in demand.
Egg production is up on recent hatchery data, according to the report.
The egg price forecast for 2017 is raised, but no changes are made to the 2018 price forecast.
Pork
Lower than expected slaughter in the third quarter prompted USDA to reduce pork production forecasts.
Pork imports this month are raised slightly on updated trade data.
The second quarter pork export forecast is adjusted with June data, but the USDA forecast for the remainder of the year is unchanged over last month.
The hog price forecast is raised for 2017 and 2018 on continued strength in demand.
The next WASDE report will be released Sept. 12 at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.