Both the dairy and poultry sectors are still dealing with cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

The current outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which traces all the way back to 2022, is unusual in not only the fact that it’s infecting dairy cattle, but also that cases are continuing to be diagnosed in the warmer summer months.

Even though the virus typically scales back in the summer, that’s not the case this year, American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Bernt Nelson said.

“Recently, we did have a few cases pop up in Colorado. We had 3.4 million birds affected in a couple of different egg production facilities,” he said. “This was the largest outbreak so far in the U.S. concentrated in a single day.”

There is, however, some good news on the dairy front, Nelson said.

“Things are slowing down just a little bit. As we went through June, we started to see some days towards the end of June and getting through July where we had a couple of days where we didn’t have any detections,” Nelson said. “Overall, we’re up to about 172 total detections in dairy cattle.”

Nelson said dairy markets haven’t taken much of a hit, though.

“You know, we see a reduction in milk production, anywhere from 20 to 30%. That’s one of the symptoms. And so, in the South especially, that dropped milk production around 2%, and at the same time, we saw demand kind of drop off to about 2%,” Nelson said. “So, the prices and whatnot stayed about the same. Now, as things have gone on, detections in the South have slowed. Production has ticked back up.”

The markets could get volatile moving into the fall and Thanksgiving.

“The majority of turkey in the United States is consumed on Thanksgiving,” Nelson said. “And so, if we look at the July livestock, dairy, and poultry outlook that the USDA puts out, May turkey production was down around close to 10% compared to last year. When we’re looking at a 10% reduction and we’re still seeing this kind of uptick in avian influenza, this may prove to be kind of a volatile market as we work our way closer to Thanksgiving.”

Click here for updates on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s response efforts to HPAI.