By Jessica Domel
Multimedia Reporter
The American supply of wheat is expected to be down this month, but if realized, the world supply may set a new record, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
U.S. production, stocks
According to the report, the projected 2017-18 supply in the U.S. is forecast lower this month because of lower production of durum and other spring wheat.
That decrease is partially offset by higher winter wheat production due to larger yields.
Nationally, winter wheat production was up one percent from the July forecast at 1.29 billion bushels. The crop remains 23 percent below the 2016 crop.
National yields are forecast at 50 bushels an acre.
About 25.8 million acres are expected to be harvested this year for grain or seed. That’s down 15 percent over last year.
Projected ending stocks in the U.S. are down this month by five million bushels to about 933 million bushels.
Texas production
In Texas, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) predicts a 2.5-million-acre harvest, which is about 300,000 acres smaller than last year.
Texas farmers produced seven million bushels of wheat this year, which is 1.9 million bushels fewer than 2016.
Low prices and diseases, like wheat streak mosaic virus, likely caused the smaller winter wheat crop.
Yields also affected Texas’ crop. Wheat acreage produced about 28 bushels to the acre, which is down four bushels.
Projected price
The 2017-18 season-average on-farm price remains unchanged at $4.40-$5.20. Unfortunately, the average farm price remains below the average cost of production at between $5 and $7 a bushel.
World supply, demand
On the world stage, the 2017-18 wheat crop has increased significantly due to an 8.6-million-ton production increase in former Soviet Union countries.
The increase in production in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan more than offsets reduced production in the European Union, United States and Canada.
Canadian production is forecast down 1.9 million tons this month due to drought in the Western Provinces.
USDA forecasts global production for 2017-18 up five million tons to 742.2 million tons.
Wheat demand is also up.
According to USDA, total world consumption is projected to increase on greater usage by Russia, Indonesia and Nigeria.
Foreign trade for the crop year is also expected to increase due to increased exports out of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakstan.
Projected global ending stocks are now forecast 4.1 million tons higher at 264.7 million tons of wheat.
If realized, that will set a new world record.
The next WASDE report will be released Sept. 12 at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
Current wheat markets can be viewed at https://texasfarmbureau.org/markets-and-weather/.