By Jessica Domel
Multimedia Reporter
If the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predictions are correct, the U.S. rice supply could fall to the lowest it’s been in a decade.
U.S. production
According to the World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the total U.S. rice supply is down five million hundredweight (cwt) over the July estimate due to a smaller crop and a slight reduction in beginning stocks.
The 2017-18 production forecast has been lowered to 186.5 million cwt, which is down 4.8 million cwt.
Long grain production is reportedly down nearly four million cwt, while combined medium and short grain rice production is down about 900,0000 cwt.
If realized, it will be the smallest all rice crop since 2011-12.
Yield is also forecast down. USDA places yield at 7,513 pounds per acre, which is down 194 pounds.
All rice ending stocks are forecast down 2.5 million cwt this month to 30 million cwt.
The 2017-18 all rice season on farm average is up 40 cents per cwt to $12.20-$13.20 per cwt.
Cost of production averages $12.08 per cwt this year.
Texas production
USDA forecasts a smaller rice crop in Texas this year. Production is forecast down from 13.76 million cwt last year to 12.67 million cwt this year.
Yields are forecast down 360 pounds an acre.
Global production
The 2017-18 global rice supply is forecast down fractionally this month with lower production more than offsetting beginning stocks.
According to USDA, this could be the second largest global crop on record.
Foreign production is forecast down .9 million tons due to decreases in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Demand
USDA forecasts a 2.5 million cwt reduction in domestic and residual use for rice this month.
Global consumption for 2017-18 is forecast down 600,000 tons with the largest reduction in Bangladesh.
Global exports are forecast up half-a-million ton.
Global ending stocks are forecast up 400,000 tons to 122.9 million tons.
The next WASDE report will be released Sept. 12 at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/.