By Emmy Powell
Communications Specialist

A strengthening El Niño weather pattern could bring above-normal precipitation this month.

Tom Bradshaw, meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, said El Niño has continued to strengthen in recent weeks and is expected to peak by the end of the year.

“As we move through the month of November, we’ll certainly see an uptick in not only the widespread nature of rainfall across the state, but also the amounts that we expect to see,” Bradshaw told the Texas Farm Bureau Radio Network. “We are actually predicting above-normal rainfall amounts over pretty much almost all of the state of Texas, which will certainly be welcome.”

The increased rainfall could help ease drought conditions.

“The big story is going to be the return of more widespread rainfall, which will certainly help to put a bigger dent in some of the ongoing drought conditions we have across parts of the state,” Bradshaw said.

Historically strong El Niño patterns typically bring wetter conditions to Texas through the winter and into spring, according to Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.

“They generally produce wet weather from October through April, especially October through February, and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Not dramatically so, but on the cool side because of all the rain, mainly.”

Years of rainfall deficits have left deep soil moisture depleted in many areas of Texas. But a wetter winter could help recharge those soil profiles ahead of the next growing season, which would improve growing conditions and potentially reduce some irrigation needs.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal throughout November as Texas transitions into cooler fall weather.

“We’re getting into that time of the year when temperatures really started to drop off at night, and we’re a little more mild during the day,” he said.

Bradshaw said the Panhandle and parts of West Texas will likely begin experiencing frost and freezes by mid-November, and freezing temperatures could reach parts of Central Texas by the end of the month.