By Shelby Shank
Field Editor

Circumstances are improving for Texas grain farmers this spring.

Dr. Mark Welch, AgriLife Extension grain market economist, said farmers can expect strong grain prices, improved planting conditions and lower input costs this season.

And soil moisture conditions have improved across parts of the Lone Star State.

Central Texas, the Plains, the Panhandle and the Rio Grande Valley remain dry, but recent rainfall has improved conditions for two-thirds of the state according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

East and South Texas have experienced excessive rain, delaying planting due to soggy fields.

“I do think the moisture improvement favors grain production,” Welch said. “Some areas need more rain before planting, but most producers are going to plant grain or cotton depending on their rotation schedule. It’s good for growers to have options, and moderated input costs creates more room for potential profit.”

Welch expects Texas corn acres could increase but overall market and growing conditions give growers other options. With tight budgets, lower costs for fuel and fertilizer have increased optimism among farmers.

Welch noted the cost for 130 pounds of nitrogen fertilizer is $20-$30 lower than this time last year. There are also fewer concerns about fertilizer availability.

Improved circumstances give farmers who planted winter wheat a number of options.

Wheat’s forage value is high due to short hay supplies across the state. Wheat fields could be grazed, baled or chopped for wheatlage and followed with corn or cotton. Another option includes providing forage for cattle until mid-March and then take the crop to grain harvest in June or July. Welch said farmers can plant a short season of sorghum or soybeans following the harvest of wheat.

Grain prices remain historically strong despite declining from record highs in 2022.

Wheat cash prices are over $8 per bushel. Cash prices peaked over $12 per bushel after Russia invaded Ukraine last spring. In late summer 2020, the cash price for wheat in Texas was below $4 per bushel.

Corn prices are also relatively strong at $8 per bushel. In summer 2020, corn prices were just below $3.50. Cash corn prices were just below $9 per bushel last summer.

Better growing conditions and price incentives could translate into more acres planted and higher yields, pushing supplies beyond demand, Welch said. A slowing global economy could also tamper demand for grains.

Some mid-western grain-producing areas continue to experience drought that could impact overall U.S. grain production. Production in Brazil, which is expected to be the world’s largest exporter of corn, could also impact prices. Harvest time of Brazil’s second season corn crop coincides with much of Central Texas.

“It’s a big old world, and the competition is growing,” Welch said. “Weather will be the big factor for everyone and determine supply, but record yields and an economic slowdown could dampen pricing opportunities.”