Several weeks ago forecasters thought El Niño would be a robust weather in the fall. Indicators in June and July showed Pacific waters were warming up off the coast of South America. There was hope for a strong El Niño and possibility of milder temperatures and more rainfall in the Southwest.
Recent weakening of the warming trend diminished that likelihood.
“But last week we began to see El Niño trying to rebuild,” said Amy McCullough, science and operations officer, National Weather Service, San Angelo. Probability of El Niño forming is now set at about 66 percent, “so we’re still hopeful,” McCullough said.
Forecasters expect no real change until late fall or early winter, however, according to Southwest Farm Press. If the phenomenon does materialize, the Texas Rolling Plains could see “above normal” precipitation this winter and colder.
McCullough is uncertain as forecasting weather is difficult. But she is hopeful.
“If El Niño develops, we should see above average rainfall,” she said.