The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade this week. USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service project overseas shipments will fall in fiscal year 2023.

The report shows agricultural exports falling about 1.2% to $193.5 billion as the sales to foreign buyers of meat and grain drops.

“USDA is projecting exports to fall slightly from FY 22 to $193.5 billion, though this would still be the second highest level of exports on record,” Veronica Nigh, American Farm Bureau Federation senior economist, said. “Fiscal year imports are projected to climb yet again to $197 billion, so if exports and imports reached these levels, the U.S. trade balance in ag products will be negative $3.5 billion in FY ’23.”

The value of exports of commodities such as soybeans and horticultural products are expected to rise in FY 2023, but the USDA agencies don’t expect it to be enough to make up for the declines in cotton, beef, corn, wheat and sorghum.

USDA notes the volume of wheat exports will be higher in 2023 but lower prices will pull down the value of total shipments.

“Wheat exports are forecast at $7.8 billion, down $300 million from FY 2022, reflecting larger export volumes but lower unit values on higher available exportable supplies,” the report says.

Cotton exports are expected to drop by $1.8 billion in FY 2023. That decrease is expected after the drought has forced many cotton farmers, especially in Texas, to abandon their fields.

The volume of rice exports is excepted to decrease, but the value of total shipments will increase $200 million more than FY 2022 to $2.2 billion.

USDA expects soybean exports to fall slightly, but the value of those sales is expected to reach a new high.

“Soybean export values are projected to reach a record $35.2 billion despite a marginal drop in volumes from the previous year,” USDA said in the report. “U.S. soybean export volumes are expected to be lower than FY 2022 due to a combination of factors including higher soybean prices, strong domestic crush, and increased competition from Brazil.”

Tight supplies of beef will mean fewer sales to foreign buyers.

“FY 2023 livestock, poultry and dairy exports are forecast down $1.5 billion to $41.1 billion on declines in most product groups,” according to the USDA report. “Beef exports are forecast down $1.1 billion to $9.8 billion as higher prices fail to offset lower volumes driven by tight U.S. supplies. Dairy products are forecast $500 million lower to $9 billion.”