The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its outlook for U.S. agricultural trade in September. The agency forecasts a rise in agricultural trade with China in 2017, after a steady decline since it peaked in 2012 at almost $26 billion.
The USDA forecasts a $6 billion rise in U.S. agricultural exports to $133 billion in 2017. The agency estimates a slight increase to $113.5 billion in 2017, up from $113.1 billion in 2016.
A strong U.S. dollar, combined with China’s slowing economy and growing stockpiles of agricultural goods, triggered the recent decline in exports, according to trade economists.
China has attempted to support domestic producers through minimum purchasing prices, which has led to excessive stockpiling of cotton, corn, rice and wheat, along with other commodities, according to Southwest Farm Press.
China’s agricultural imports have risen rapidly after they joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2000. Accelerated economic growth, rising middle-class incomes, changing consumer diets and an increasing move by more Chinese to converge on urban centers have all been factors leading to the rise.
Chinese consumers have turned to less grain and increased consumption of meat, dairy and processed food, according to the USDA. This can help boost U.S. trade. Over a 12-year span, household consumption of poultry went up significantly, according to China’s Bureau of Statistics. Milk consumption increased slightly less than 50 percent and vegetable oilseed use increased 30 percent.
U.S. grown soybeans are leading U.S. trade of agricultural exports in terms of value. Coarse grains, dried grains and other feeds remain important in supporting China’s growing livestock industry and represent trade opportunities for U.S. farms to remain competitive through U.S.-China trade in the years ahead, according to Southwest Farm Press.
Other consumer food product trade opportunities for U.S. farmers and ranchers include tree nuts, dairy, pork, wine and beer. Export of these products has increased 300 percent over recent years.
Dairy exports have grown more than 500 percent since the turn of the century, according to USDA. The demand for pork has nearly tripled during the first half of 2016.
Almonds, pecans and walnuts have also increased nearly 400 percent in the past decade.
But tight Chinese trade barriers will continue to be a challenge for U.S. farmers. China’s 2015 Food Safety Law and the Facility and Product Registration Requirement for all overseas feed and food manufacturers remains a barrier to effective trade, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
China recently lifted its 13-year ban on U.S. beef imports. They have placed a ban on U.S. chickens used for breeding as a result of a U.S. avian influenza outbreak.
Opportunities, however, still exist for U.S. farmers and companies who follow the trade development carefully, economists say.