By Emmy Powell
Communications Specialist

The latest U.S. Department Agriculture (USDA) export forecast signals weaker U.S. farm export values ahead, but strong demand for cotton and beef offers a brighter outlook for top exporting states like Texas.

USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade projects the trade deficit for fiscal year 2025 down to $47 billion from $49.5 billion it estimated in June. The deficit is expected to drop further to $41.5 billion in fiscal year 2026.

Earlier this year, between January through April, U.S. agricultural imports climbed to a record $78.2 billion. Exports reached only $58.5 billion, leaving a nearly $20 billion trade deficit in just four months.

Commodity forecasts reveal the backbone of American exports remains steady.

Grains and feeds are expected to bring in $39.2 billion, with corn alone accounting for $15.7 billion. Oilseeds and products are projected at $33.4 billion, including $21.5 billion in soybeans. Livestock, poultry and dairy exports are forecast at $38.9 billion, with beef, pork and poultry each contributing between $7 and $9 billion.

Wheat exports are projected to hit their highest level in five years. The rebound highlights both the value of access to foreign markets for farm profitability and the continued risks posed by price pressure, volatile weather and unresolved trade barriers.

While the USDA’s quarterly forecasts do not provide state-level projections, Texas historically ranks near the top among all states in export value. Cotton, beef, hides and feeds dominate the Lone Star State’s shipments abroad.

Texas was the largest state exporter of goods in 2024, sending $123.5 billion worth of products to Mexico alone.

As global demand evolves, Texas producers are likely to feel both the pressure of lower commodity prices and the benefit of strong regional trade with Mexico.

“The challenge will be navigating shifting trade dynamics while keeping U.S. commodities competitive globally,” Brant Wilbourn, Texas Farm Bureau associate director of Commodity and Regulatory Activities said. “The ongoing trade deficit is a reminder that strong free trade agreements are critical to U.S. agriculture.”

The report is published quarterly and reviews U.S. agricultural trade on the global stage, outlining economic conditions and their impact on the nation’s economy and trade flows.

View the full report.