California’s controversial Proposition 12 stands after the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of the law last week.

California’s Proposition 12 bans the sale of pork from hogs that don’t meet the state’s new production standards, even if the pork was raised on farms outside of California. Any whole pork meat from hogs born of sows not housed in conformity with the law cannot be sold in the state of California, regardless of whether the animal was raised in-state or out-of-state.

Agricultural groups, including American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) and National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), are disappointed in the ruling, saying it’s a significant loss for the pork industry.

The groups argued that if California’s law stands, then other states can set requirements, making it more difficult to meet each state’s varying production standards.

“We had hoped for a different outcome, but we didn’t necessarily hope for a different outcome just for our producers and our farmers who are going to be impacted by this ruling. We hoped for a different outcome for the consumers of California and a recognition of the burden that this is going to place on them,” NPPC CEO Bryan Humphreys said.

The Supreme Court affirmed a decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. The court dismissed a lawsuit filed by agricultural groups against Prop 12, citing the industry groups did not state a claim of damages.

“Allowing state overreach will increase prices for consumers and drive small farms out of business, leading to more consolidation,” Humphreys said. “We are still evaluating the court’s full opinion to understand all the implications. NPPC will continue to fight for our nation’s pork farmers and American families against misguided regulations.”

Proposition 12 requires whole pork meat to be born to a sow that was housed with 24 square feet of space and in conditions that allow a sow to turn around without touching an enclosure. If pork is sold and doesn’t meet the requirements, it will be a criminal offense and civil violation.

“AFBF is disappointed in the closely divided Supreme Court ruling on California’s Proposition 12. At the heart of this argument is whether one state can set the rules for the entire country,” AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “The arbitrary standards take away flexibility to ensure hogs are raised in a safe environment. Prop 12 will cause further consolidation in agriculture nationwide and lead to higher pork prices at the grocery store for America’s families. This law will ultimately harm consumers, farmers and animals.”

The ruling comes at a difficult time when hog farmers are “facing high input costs and some of the most challenging economic times that the pork industry has seen in 20 years,” Humphreys said.

The U.S. pork industry will face a daunting task to comply with the law, according to a 2021 Rabobank report.

“With less than 4% of the U.S. sow housing currently able to meet the new standard, Rabobank expects a shortfall in compliant pork to bifurcate the U.S. market, leaving California with a severe pork deficit (and high prices), while generating a surplus in the rest of the U.S. market,” the report said.

To make a move from the industry standard of 18 to 20 square feet per sow to compliant spacing of 24 square feet per sow, a hog farmer would require 20% to 25% more barn space or force a reduction in stocking densities, the study said.

If hog farmers outside of California adjust their operations to meet Proposition 12, Rabobank forecasts production flows to drop by at least 25%, disrupting the entire supply chain.