A new report says that while all member countries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership stand to benefit from the trade agreement, the U.S. has the most to gain.
The report, according to Agri-Pulse, from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) says the agreement will increase “annual real incomes” in the U.S. by $131 billion by 2030. Global figures for that same time frame show an increase of about $492 billion with sizable gains also projected for Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.
The report says the TPP agreement, which was completed last October after years of negotiations, “appears to have met its two most important negotiating objectives,” benefiting member countries economically and developing rules for economic integration. The report, however, also notes the agreement “reflects inevitable compromises” among the 12 Pacific Rim countries at the negotiating table.
Founded in 1981, the PIIE is a nonprofit, nonpartisan group dedicated to the study of international policy. Since its founding, the group has weighed in on a variety of issues ranging from necessary reforms of the International Monetary Fund to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Agriculturally speaking, the report notes exports will “rise more than imports” in “primary” goods, a classification that includes agricultural products. But it points out that export gains among primary goods will be smaller “because this sector is small in the first place and because its products are often exported in processed form as food, beverages, chemicals and other raw-materials based products.
“Given the scope and complexity of topics addressed, the diversity of the negotiating parties and the backdrop of inaction on urgent trade issues, the TPP is a notable accomplishment,” the report concluded. “It is a substantial positive response to slowing world trade growth and rising trade barriers, and a major contribution toward a rules-based global economy.”
Chris Wyant, the executive director of the Progressive Coalition for American Jobs, said the study “makes clear” that “the TPP is the most progressive trade agreement in history and contains benefits for American agricultural and manufacturing exports while supporting thousands of higher-paying, middle-class jobs.”
Opponents of the deal say TPP will only serve to create a more sizable trade deficit by offering smoother access to U.S. markets for foreign competitors.
Opposition to the deal in the U.S. and election year complications have led some to speculate Congress won’t vote on the agreement until the lame duck session following the election, or possibly not until 2017. The Peterson report notes that delaying TPP approval by one year “would represent a $77 billion permanent loss.” Aside from that figure, the report also says the U.S. could forfeit gains that compound over time as well as become vulnerable to other trade agreements in the region.
Ministerial representatives from the TPP countries are scheduled to formally sign the pact in Auckland, New Zealand, on Feb. 4.
As trade advocates push for the ratification of this deal with Pacific trading partners, U.S. trade officials are traveling to Brussels, Belgium, today for another round of talks with the European Union on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP). Ambassador Darci Vetter, the chief agricultural negotiator with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, is among the U.S. delegation.