By Shelby Shank
Field Editor

Grilling season is underway, and consumers can expect meat prices to be up for beef and down for pork and chicken, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.

“It looks like we should be able to find some deals on chicken and pork for cookouts, but retail beef prices continue to stay high on most cuts,” Dr. David Anderson, AgriLife Extension economist, said. “Even ground beef for hamburgers is a little higher this year compared to this time last year.”

Anderson attributes rising beef prices to lower beef production, which is reported to be down 5% compared to last year when the U.S. set a record.

“We’ve had a shrinking beef cattle herd the last few years, and so many cows and heifers went to market because of drought,” Anderson said. “Demand doesn’t seem to be slowing, which is contributing to higher retail prices.”

Wholesale 90% lean ground beef was up slightly at $2.77 per pound this year compared to $2.73 per pound last year, while 50% lean grinds were $1.89 per pound compared to $1.05 per pound last year.

Beef prices stumbled at $3.05 per pound for choice primal cuts in September 2021 but have been climbing in recent weeks. Anderson notes wholesale choice brisket was $2.31 per pound last week compared to $2.09 per pound this time last year, a slight discount from the five-year average of $2.54 per pound.

“Briskets got so expensive. Prices were so high that people were buying fewer, and I think some restaurants may have even cut back and been willing to run out of barbecue,” Anderson said about grilling season. “Folks may notice higher brisket prices, but they’ve been higher.”

Steaks were also priced higher this year compared to last year. Choice ribeye steaks were $8.92 per pound wholesale compared to $8.54 per pound a year ago, according to Anderson. But the increase is still below the price—$10.70 per pound—for the same cut just last month.

“I suspect some spot buying by grocers to make sure they had specials going into the holiday drove prices up some,” Anderson said. “But those prices came down in the runup to the Memorial Day weekend.”

On the contrary, chicken and pork prices have tumbled from record high prices.

Chicken wing prices have gone down, as Anderson noted wholesale wings were 88 cents per pound compared to $1.86 per pound last year. Chicken breasts have also fallen from a record high of $3.35 in May 2021. Wholesale breasts were $1.39 per pound compared to $3.56 per pound this time last year.

Anderson also added grocery stores were more willing to feature chicken cuts that could be used for grilling season on special compared to last year. Features are items grocery stores run special prices on to attract customers. Grocery store special features on poultry were double—14% versus 7%—what they were last year.

Spareribs, a classic barbecue offering, were $1.44 per pound compared to $2.41 per pound last year. Bellies, which deliver another pork powerhouse—bacon—were 97 cents per pound compared to $1.65 per pound. Hams and pork butts are the only pork cuts that increased.

Pork producers are hurting from low whole pork prices, Anderson noted. Low cutout prices make it difficult for farmers to break even despite lower feed prices.

Anderson said wholesale prices for beef, pork and poultry may have experienced ups and downs, but retail prices have remained relatively high.

The price margin between wholesale packer prices and what consumers pay at grocery checkouts is historically large. Higher fuel and electricity costs, as well as wages, packaging and other costs, all contribute to the wholesale-retail rift.

Retail pork is lower than last year, $4.73 per pound compared to $4.89 per pound, but much higher than the five-year average of $3.90 per pound.

“Overall, people are still buying, and prices aren’t high enough to change some habits that might make retailers drop prices on some items that are more in line with wholesale prices,” Anderson said when discussing grilling season in a recent AgriLife Today article. “But those changes are never immediate, and the ups and downs in retail are hardly ever as dramatic as wholesale because stores don’t want to drive customers away with big price swings.”