By Shelby Shank
Field Editor

Gregg Doud, vice president of Global Situational Awareness and chief economist for Aimpoint Research, gave a presentation on global prospects for U.S. agriculture trade in 2023 to Texas Farm Bureau members at the Leadership Conference in Austin.

He noted China will be an important part of the trade conversation.

“China imports from the world about the same amount of agricultural products as the total U.S. agricultural exports,” said Doud. “See how important they are to us. See how important they are to this whole agricultural conversation.”

Total U.S. agricultural exports for 2022 set a record at $196 billion. Chinese agricultural imports from the world were $200 billion in 2022.

Significant regulatory decisions in China have increased the country’s agricultural imports.

In January 2020, China banned feeding swill, or kitchen waste, to hogs. Although the country suffered major losses to the hog population due to African swine fever, China is still responsible for half of the hog population in the world. The ban on feeding food waste to hogs created an increase of corn imports to China.

The U.S. has been the biggest exporter of corn, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to reduced supplies of corn and pushed China to seek other sources.

This has created a unique situation where Brazil may be exporting more corn to China than the U.S. in 2023.

Additionally, Brazilian corn isn’t available until June due to the country’s ports being completely booked exporting soybeans.

What this means for the U.S. is that Brazil will begin exporting corn again around the same time U.S. is harvesting this year’s corn crop.

Doud noted China’s consumption of beef has increased. In 2022, China bought $18 billion worth of beef, and it is predicted the U.S. will sell $2.5 billion worth of beef to China and Hong Kong this year.

Doud also noted 2023 is going to be the year of renewable diesel, and that farmers and ranchers can expect a shift from La Niña weather patterns to El Niño by the end of the year.

He stressed the importance of biotechnology and a strong farm bill.

“From the minute a U.S. farmer wakes up to the minute he goes to sleep, he’s thinking about one thing. How in the world are we going to feed 9 billion people by 2050?” Doud said. “We’re going to use the technology at our disposal, and we’re going to use it safely and as efficiently as we can.”