The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s Emily Becker said atmospheric and oceanic conditions just barely allowed forecasters to declare an El Niño advisory after months of almost conditions were recorded, reports Farm Futures.
Extremely weak El Niño conditions had been recorded. The center’s forecast calls for an approximately 50-60 percent chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the spring.
NOAA is basing its forecast on historical March-May El Niño precipitation patterns, which shows how El Niño has affected U.S. precipitation during the 10 years of which El Niño was present in the spring.
The current El Niño is weak, and it’s generally the case that the weaker the El Niño, the more likely it is that other weather variability will drown out its influence, NOAA said.