The U.S. Census Bureau recently released new data for the first four months of 2021 regarding trade with China. That data shows China is closing the gap toward reaching the goal of purchases in the Phase One trade agreement.

The agreement, which was signed by the U.S. and China in January 2020, committed China to large purchases of U.S. agricultural products in 2020 and 2021.

Phase One laid out that over the course of 2020 and 2021, total exports of U.S. agricultural products to China would increase by $73.8 billion, which is equivalent to $80 billion in Chinese imports, once shipping and freight are added, AFBF said. The agreement split the total purchases into individual annual commitments–45% of the total, or $33.4 billion, was to be purchased in 2020 and 55% of the total, or $40.4 billion, was to be purchased in 2021. China missed the 2020 target by $6.15 billion and is 22% behind through the first four months of 2021, but purchases are coming on strong.

“The data recently released for April 2021 shows us that while China is behind on their imports relative to the commitments that they had for 2021, purchases are really coming on strong,” American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Veronica Nigh said. “We’re looking right now at exports over $10 billion, achieving about 25% of the goal for 2021 which is $40 billion.”

Nigh noted China is on track to be the largest purchaser of U.S. ag products.

“Last year, China had pledged to purchase $33 billion in ag products, and they didn’t quite make it. They purchased $27 billion. But still, that was a record for U.S. ag exports,” she said. “So, looking at 2021, with a commitment of $40 billion, that’s a huge increase in exports for U.S. ag products and would certainly secure China as the largest export destination for U.S. ag products once again.”

Reaching the lofty goals of the Phase One agreement is still possible, Nigh said.

“Looking at current commodity prices and the purchase commitments for new crop commodities and how much further along in exports we are in 2021, relative to where we were in 2020, it seems China might actually make it this year, at least they stand a chance, that U.S. ag exports might actually achieve this huge goal that was laid out in the Phase One agreement,” she said.

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