As farmers continue to harvest, yield estimates could fall short of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) survey predictions, according to Farm Futures.
Farm Futures conducted an online survey of 1,225 farmers from July 18 to Aug. 3. The results show a record corn crop at 14.59 billion bushels, but the average U.S. yield of 168.6 bpa would not meet the record set in 2014.
The Farm Futures survey also estimates record-setting soybean production of 3.865 billion bushels, which would be the third highest crop.
But the variable weather conditions could impact the corn and soybean yield prediction.
“Soybean yields are always hard to predict this early in the growing season,” Farm Futures Grain Market Analyst Bryce Knorr said. “The corn numbers are also up in the air, perhaps more than usual this year. Many farmers have noted the potential impact of warm summer nights in our Feedback From The Field feature, and rainfall was also highly variable in July. Some parts of the Midwest got very little, while other fields were flooded with 15 to 20 inches or more.”
The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress reports suggest that commodity yields may be higher. The reports show corn yields at 175 bpa and soybean yields at 49 bpa.
“Soybean yields could indeed be higher if the growing season ends warm and wet as forecast,” Knorr said. “But the best prospect for higher corn yields may come if harvested acreage winds up significantly less than USDA found in its June 30 survey, as our survey also suggests. That might result in higher yields, though the corn crop would stay the same size.”