Many parts of Texas may see a rain-drenched winter due to a super-strong El Niño brewing in the tropical Pacific.
But Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, state climatologist, College Station, doesn’t expect a repeat of the 2015 wet spring will necessarily follow.
The El Niño of 2014-2015 was only moderately strong, but the rain it brought, followed by a very wet spring, effectively ended the Texas drought. Meanwhile, the 2015-2016 El Niño is shaping up to be a record-breaker, said Nielsen-Gammon, who is also a Regents Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University.
“So far, it is the strongest ever for this time of year,” he said. “The (climate) models that have gotten it right so far, are forecasting it to continue to intensify. So it seems like it could be among the five strongest ever going into this upcoming winter.”
However, a much stronger-than-normal El Niño does not necessarily mean the rain it brings will be proportionally more. There have been strong El Niños in the recent past that did not drench the state.
“The El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-98 were the really strong ones, and nothing really special happened in those years, except for above-normal rainfall and cooler temperatures, which is what usually happens November through March, as long as there’s at least a moderate El Niño,” he said.
But it’s almost a certainty that Texas will have another winter of above-average rainfall.
“There’s only about a 10 percent chance, according to the Climate Prediction Center, that the current El Niño could weaken enough that we won’t have El Niño conditions this winter,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “This is about as solid a bet as you can get for a six-month forecast.”
However, he added, the El Niño won’t bring any relief during this summer from the dry conditions much of Texas has had for the past month and a half.