By Shelby Shank
Field Editor

Planted corn acres in Texas are expected to decline this season due to significant drought in some areas.

Texas corn acres are expected to be 100,000 acres below last year’s total of 2.15 million acres, according to AgriLife Extension Grain Economist Dr. Mark Welch.

Corn acres across the nation, however, are expected to increase. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings survey estimated 92 million acres of corn will be planted nationwide. That is 3.4 million above last year’s planted corn acres in the United States.

The survey estimates an increase of 865,000 acres planted in the South, 950,000 in the Dakotas and 650,000 acres in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, as well as a 550,000 increase in other Corn Belt states.

But there are questions surrounding final planting decisions due to weather, Welch said. States like Nebraska and Kansas, which were in exceptional drought, have received rainfall recently and are expected to see improved planting conditions if El Niño weather patterns continue.

“As we get into May, the grain markets will be paying attention to the areas where there are questions about whether they actually get significant corn acreage planted,” Welch said.

Price incentives to plant corn are driving the increase in acres nationally, but there is concern that good yields across the nation could drive prices down, according to Welch.

All grain prices have fallen in recent weeks, along with other commodities like crude oil and copper, reflecting weakness in the overall outlook for the economy.

Corn futures prices remain relatively strong at $5.25 per bushel, but that is down from $5.75 a bushel a month ago and $7.45 a bushel at this time last year, he said.

El Niño weather patterns are generally associated with good growing conditions in the Corn Belt, and Welch expects growers to realize 179 bushels per acre or better, which would mean record yields.

Grains are still in good demand while stored corn supplies are tightening. For farmers who get their crop to harvest in July or August, this could mean good cash prices because they are among the first to enter the grain market, Welch noted.

However, Brazil has a big corn crop that will be harvested around the same time and could counter-balance that advantage on a global scale, especially with exports to China, he said.

“It seems like there is a lot of last-second decision-making around the state and in some areas of the country with significant acres that could go to one crop or the other,” he said. “It will be interesting to see which way everything goes and how the season plays out from now to harvest.”