The U.S. Census Bureau this week released first quarter 2022 trade data. Veronica Nigh, American Farm Bureau Federation senior economist, said U.S. ag exports are up nearly 13% compared to a year ago.
“But, if you’re like me, you’re probably wondering how much inflation is contributing to that increase,” she said. “So, after adjusting for inflation, 2022 year-to-date exports are up 4% by value compared to the same period last year. However, when we look at export volumes, the story isn’t quite as rosy. Export volumes year-to-date are actually down 4% compared to the same period last year.”
Nigh said many are closely watching the global supply of corn and wheat.
“Despite the estimation that Ukraine’s ‘22-23 wheat export volumes will be down nearly 50% because of war, and U.S. wheat exports are projected to be down 4% due to drought, USDA is actually projecting that global wheat exports will be up a little bit this year,” she said. “That’s mainly based on increased volumes out of Russia. So far, 2022 wheat exports out of the U.S. are weaker than a year ago. U.S. export volumes of corn are estimated down in the current marketing year, mainly related to higher prices.”
Beyond corn and wheat, Nigh noted other U.S. products are enjoying increased exports.
“U.S. ethanol exports are up 67% in January through April of 2022 compared to a year ago. Soybean oil is up over 50%. That’s likely a result of folks choosing soybean oil as a substitute for sunflower seed oil, which is a major export crop out of Ukraine and Russia,” Nigh said. “Cotton is also up over 50% by value. Beef and beef products are up also over 38% compared to the same point last year.”