By Jessica Domel
Field Editor
Although much of Texas received some much-needed rainfall in the past week, the state could be in for more rain if meteorologists’ El Niño predictions come through.
“You don’t start seeing an uptick in average rainfall during El Niño until November–especially with the stronger ones,” State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said.
El Niño, a warming trend of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, could also bring cloudier days and cooler temperatures.
But additional rainfall is not guaranteed.
“The two strongest El Niños in the past actually ended up being near-normal for Texas,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “The only thing off the table is anything substantially drier than normal. That hasn’t happened in recorded history with a decent strength El Niño.”
El Niño weather patterns can last six months to two years. This specific weather pattern is forecast to end sometime in the spring or summer.
“Unfortunately, it will not only end, but temperatures are forecast to keep going down,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “There’s a very good chance of seeing a La Niña next fall.”
La Niña typically brings with her a warmer, drier winter.
“Unfortunately, when we have things swinging in one direction like El Niño, it really does have to swing in the other direction eventually,” Nielsen-Gammon said.
Nielsen-Gammon cautions that the regional average is for more rainfall in an El Niño and less in a La Niña, but it is always possible for individual locations to be more or less lucky as the systems continue through the hemisphere.