A new report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA-ERS) predicts U.S. net farm income this year will be at its lowest since 2006.

The drop to $58.3 billion forecast in 2015 is down 36 percent from 2014’s estimate and down 53 percent from the record high of $123.7 billion in 2013.

It’s not going to come as a surprise to any farmer or rancher that the general financial situation for agriculture is not quite as strong this year as it was in the past—certainly when we look back on 2012 and 2013, Jim Sartwelle, National Legislative director for Texas Farm Bureau, said. What’s driving it right now are huge fall offs in terms of cotton, corn, soybean and wheat prices.

Net cash income for 2015 is forecast at $100.3 billion. That’s down 21 percent from last year.

USDA-ERS attributed lower crop and livestock receipts, among other factors, to the decline.

Look at cotton, the quintessential Texas product with about a third of the nation’s cotton production right here. If we know that nationally there’s going to be a $2 billion decrease in cotton receipts this year—almost a 30 percent decline in receipts—we’re going to feel it pretty strongly, Sartwelle said.

Corn is off $7 billion, which is a 13 percent decrease, and soybeans are down to $3.5 billion, down almost 10 percent.

We’re paying for some inventories. We’re paying for global financial weakness with our export partners, Sartwelle said.

Cash production expenses are projected down by 1.1 percent.

Sartwelle said this is not like the farm financial crisis of the 1980s because debt-to-asset ratios are better now than they were then.

Agriculture led the economy out of the 2008/2009 recession. Farmers paid down debt and are generally in a solvent financial condition, Sartwelle said.

In Texas, things are slightly better although our individual state forecast is not out yet.

Sartwelle notes that the beef industry remains a bright spot, with cattle prices expected to remain strong in 2016 despite projected herd expansion.

He notes the USDA report is simply a forecast and that there are still a lot of balls in the air that could land differently and affect farm income.

Any time you see the top line number decrease like they are, you have cause for concern, Sartwelle said. I go to the bottom and see the debt situation across the board in farm country is still quite positive, and that gives me hope for renewal in 2016.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said despite the decline from unprecedented highs in farm income, the projections provide a snapshot of a rural America that continues to remain stable and resilient in the face of the worst animal disease outbreak in our nation’s history and while the western United States remains gripped by drought.

The full report and its corresponding charts can be found at: http://1.usa.gov/1JuggwD.